The graph is from a new working paper by Preston et al (September 2012). The authors look at trends in cigarrette consumtpion and obesity prevalence in the US. They do not examine any causal effects between the two variables. They conclude:
The combined effects of past and future changes in obesity and smoking are likely to result in an improvement in US life expectancy over the next 30 years. This improvement occurs because the advantages of reductions in smoking outweigh the penalty imposed by increases in obesity. Over the next decade, however, the combined effects are likely to produce only a very small improvement in mortality for the combined sexes because the heaviest smoking cohorts of American women are still in or approaching the ages of greatest vulnerability to death.